Party leaders expect big caucus turnout

By James Grob, jgrob@charlescitypress.com

Floyd County Democratic Party Chairman William Baresel is expecting a big turnout Monday at the Iowa caucus.

“The state Democratic Party is expecting two or three thousand people to show up for this, in a county of 15,000, which is pretty good,” Baresel said. “We’re expecting as big a turnout as we had in 2016, if not bigger.”

Iowa voters will gather together Monday to kick off the nominating contests that will pick candidates from each major party to run for president in the 2020 general election in November. There are five Democratic caucus sites in Floyd County and one Republican caucus site.

The Democratic race has gotten the most attention this year, due to the large number of candidates running to challenge Republican President Donald Trump.

The Republican Party is participating in the caucus as well, however. All Floyd County Republican precincts will meet at Washington Elementary School at 7 p.m. Monday.

“I’m hoping turnout is going to be pretty decent,” said Republican Party Chairman Julius Bryant. “I would guess we might get about 200 people.”

Bryant said that caucus-goers would elect precinct officials, elect delegates to the county convention and come up with party platform ideas to send to the state.

There are also Republican challengers opposing Trump for the nomination, and those attending the caucus will get the opportunity to caucus for them, or for the president. Candidates include former Illinois Rep. Joe Walsh and former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld.

For the Republican caucuses, participants simply cast a vote of support for their candidate of choice. For Democratic caucuses, participants separate into groups based on their support or preference of a candidate.

Bryant said the Republicans will have the room divided up into the different precincts so people from the same precinct can sit together. Voters not registered in the party can register there on site.

“Show up a little bit early so you can get signed in and get situated,” Bryant said. “It’s informational, and it’s good to get involved and voice your ideas and opinions.”

The caucuses are conducted by the political parties and not by county auditors as in elections. Participants express their presidential candidate preference and help form party platform planks (issues).

There are five caucus sites in Floyd County for Democratic voters. All Charles City Democrats will caucus at the high school, along with St. Charles and Riverton precincts.

Doors at the Democratic caucus sites will open at 6 p.m., with no admittance after 7 p.m.

“Show up at 6 p.m. to make sure you can get registered,” Baresel said. “If you can come out at all, come out.”

Baresel said there are a few procedural changes at the Democratic caucus this year, so those coming out should be prepared.

“There will be a preference ballot — after everyone breaks into their groups for the first round, if your candidate is viable, you’re locked into that group for the rest of the night,” he said. “You cannot change candidates after the first round if your candidate is viable.”

Raw vote totals, as well as the final delegate numbers, will be counted at the caucus this year. The first vote that is taken, whoever a person chooses in the first round, will be counted — even if a candidate ends up with no delegates, the public will know how many people supported that candidate.

In previous years, the Iowa Democratic Party reported just one number: the number of state delegates won by each candidate. For the first time, the party will this year report two other numbers — who had the most votes at the beginning and at the end of the night.

The race will be called based on the winner on state delegate equivalents, because delegates are the metric used to decide the eventual winner of the nomination. Iowa and national Democratic Party figures emphasize this is the number to watch.

There’s a chance a candidate might win the most support during the first vote but lose out on the final alignment — and ultimately the delegate count — after supporters for candidates who are not viable realign after the first round of counting.

Candidate viability is based on reaching a 15% threshold. Candidates who receive at least 15% of the support of the people present at the caucus will be awarded at least one delegate at the county convention. If “undeclared” gets 15%, then there will be an undeclared delegate at the county convention.

If a candidate does not reach the 15% support viability standard, the realignment process begins, where caucus-goers can either leave their current candidate group to support another group, or recruit individuals from other groups to join their cause.

Once all preference groups reach the viability threshold, the number of delegates from each group is determined. A verbal vote is taken to ratify the selection of delegates.

Most recent national polls show former Vice-President Joe Biden with the lead in the race for the Democratic Party nomination, with Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg as the other three top contenders.

Recent polls in the state of Iowa have the same four candidates at the top, but show some recent momentum for Sanders. Three of the last four polls show Sanders in the lead, with Biden leading in the fourth poll. Biden is in second in two of the four polls, with Buttigieg and Sanders each in second place in one poll. Warren is in fourth place in every poll, with Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar in the mix at fifth in each of the polls. The slim margin of distance between each of the candidates suggests a wide-open race.

The Democratic winner in Iowa has become the party’s nominee in seven of nine contested races and two have won the presidency, Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008. For Republicans, the Iowa winner has won the nomination in only two of six contested races, with George W. Bush going on to win the presidency in 2000.

Twelve of the Democratic candidates have paid visits to Charles City on the campaign trail, although a handful who have visited have since dropped out of the race. Andrew Yang, an attorney and former tech executive who founded the economic development nonprofit organization Venture for America, is the most recent candidate to make a local stop, and Yang has seen a recent rise in the Iowa polls.

Floyd County 2020 Caucus Locations
7 p.m. Monday, Feb. 3

Republican Party of Iowa
All Precincts
Washington Elementary School, 
1406 N Grand, Charles City.

Iowa Democratic Party
All Charles City Precincts & St. Charles/Riverton Precinct
Charles City High School, 
1 Comet Drive, Charles City.

Floyd/Cedar/Niles Precinct
Floyd Community Center
, 706 Fairfield Street, Floyd.

Rockford/Ulster Precinct
RRMR High School, 
1460 210th Street, Rockford.

Rock Grove/Rudd Precinct
Central Springs Middle School, 
509 N Iowa Street, Nora Springs.

Scott/Union/Pleasant Grove Precinct
Walter F. Bohle Community Center
, 520 College Street, Marble Rock.